Posts filtered by tags: Nate Silver[x]


Achievements in graphic depiction.

I'm not even sure I understand this meme but I'm retweeting it anyway.— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 12, 2019 [Author: [email protected] (Ann Althouse)]
Tags: Law, Metaphor, Fast Food, Mcdonald's, Nate Silver, Ann Althouse, 2020 Campaign

Using `who will be the dem VP choice' article in class

I recently read an absurd article that speculated on who the Democratic VICE prez nominees will be. Yes, you read that right, VICE Prez. Gee, wouldn't knowing who the Prez nominees was first help. But leave it to Nate Silver and company to have a fascinating yet... premature article on this. Here is the link: article on who will be Dem VP nominee.  Its hard enough to pick the VP when the Prez is known! I did a blog on how badly intrade would do on predicting VP, here. I didn't predict that intra...
Tags: Seo, Paul ryan, BETO, Al Franken, Trump, Fed, Palin, Don, McCain, Edwards, IFF, Cory Booker, Prez, Nate Silver, Clinton Gore, Quayle

Don't know Football but still want bet on the Superb Owl?

(Suberp Owl is not a typo. I've heard (and it could be wrong) that the  NFL guards their copyright so you can't even say `Buy Beer here for the YOU KNOW WHATl' but instead `Buy Beer here for the big game''. Stephen Colbert a long time ago go around this by calling the game Superb Owl.) If I knew more about football  I might place a bet related to the Superb Owl. What kind of bets can I place? 1) Bet the point spread: Last time I looked the Patriots were a 2.5 point favorite. So eit...
Tags: Stephen Colbert, NFL, America, Seo, Tom Brady, Las Vegas, National Anthem, Gladys Knight, Josh, Don, Rams, Nate Silver, Jamie White, Josh Hermsmeyer

Trump plans to walk right up into Nancy Pelosi's space — Will she smirk and block his way?

"Trump says he’ll deliver State of the Union at the Capitol despite Pelosi’s request to postpone" (WaPo).I'm picturing him entering banging a drum and walking straight up to her and standing there beating the drum right in her face. Because that is the state of the union.ADDED: A more "serious" view: This is right, IMO. Pelosi shouldn't have cited security concerns as a reason for disinviting Trump from giving the SOTU. It would have sent a stronger message just to say she wouldn't pretend it wa...
Tags: Law, Nancy Pelosi, Nancy, Trump, Sotu, Capitol, WaPo, Pelosi, Nate Silver, Ann Althouse, Trump's new Congress, Trump's shutdown

As Kirsten Gillibrand enters the presidential race, Nate Silver seems to push for the NYT to use its "agenda-setting power" to keep Al Franken out of the "conversation" of "normal people."

It's definitely a part of the conversation, but let's keep in mind that the NYT, and frankly even (to a lesser magnitude) 538, have a lot of agenda-setting power for what's part of the conversation. So Twitter isn't an exogenous measure of what normal people care about. — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) January 16, 2019 You can peruse the current tweets about Gillibrand and Franken here. Two examples:"Holding Gillibrand accountable for her statements and actions IS NOT th...
Tags: Twitter, Law, Language, Bill, Silver, Kirsten Gillibrand, Al Franken, Clintonworld, Nate Silver, Franken, Gillibrand, Ann Althouse, Kirsten E. Gillibrand

"In the Russian Federation and in President Putin himself, you have an individual whose aim is to disrupt the Western alliance and whose aim is to make Western democracy more fractious..."

"... in order to weaken our ability, America’s ability and the West’s ability to spread our democratic ideals.... That’s the goal, to make us less of a moral authority to spread democratic values... With respect to Western ideals and who it is and what it is we stand for as Americans, Russia poses the most dangerous threat to that way of life."Said Lisa Page, in private testimony to a joint House Judiciary and Oversight Committee, quoted in "F.B.I. Opened Inquiry Into Whether Trump Was Secretly ...
Tags: Law, Putin, Russia, America, Journalism, Fbi, Nyt, Times, Russian Federation, Nate Silver, Ann Althouse, Trump troubles, Lisa Page, House Judiciary and Oversight Committee, Said Lisa Page

Provoked, Nate Silver calls the Hillary 2016 campaign "huge dumbasses."

Notice the conspiracy thinking he's responding to:The 538 model, which was based on publicly-available polling data, said the campaigns should target WI and MI. You didn't have to have any proprietary info to know they were important states. You just had to look at the data and not be huge dumbasses like the HRC campaign was.— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) January 8, 2019 [Author: [email protected] (Ann Althouse)]
Tags: Law, HRC, Nate Silver, Hillary 2016, Ann Althouse, Insults

Donald Trump says 'Ask Elizabeth Warren's psychiatrist' if she can win the White House in 2020

Donald Trump attacked Elizabeth Warren, the first major Democrat candidate to declare for the 2020 presidential race, saying voters should "ask her psychiatrist" if she could win. Ms Warren,69, the US senator from Massachusetts, announced her White House run on New Year's Eve, saying she would "fight all the way" against Mr Trump. The two politicians have previously had high profile disagreements. Mr Trump's nickname for Ms Warren is "Pocahontas" over her controversial claims of Native...
Tags: News, White House, Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren, US, Harvard, Warren, Fox News, Oklahoma, Donald Trump, Casablanca, Trump, Bailey, Nate Silver, Ms Warren, AP Ms Warren

One man's ceiling is another man's floor.

It's too *late* to wonder if O'Rourke is running, because he's already running.— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) December 29, 2018 [Author: [email protected] (Ann Althouse)]
Tags: Law, Nate Silver, Adam Nagourney, Ann Althouse, 2020 Campaign, O Rourke, Beto O'Rourke, SKwrazTnMj Nate Silver

"This is why Trump won (re-election)."

This is why Trump won (re-election)— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) December 26, 2018 [Author: [email protected] (Ann Althouse)]
Tags: Law, Trump, Nate Silver, Ann Althouse, 2020 Campaign

Frightening the boycotters with "milquetoast both-sidesism with a pro-corporate bent."

Jack is right. The logical endpoint of deeming advertisers to have endorsed the political messages of the shows they run ads on is that only milquetoast both-sidesism with a pro-corportate bent will be advertising-supported, if any political content is ad-supported at all. — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) December 19, 2018 It's not easy to get activated aggressors who are fixed on a target to stand down out of concern for a general goal like avoiding milquetoast both-sid...
Tags: Comics, Protest, Law, Christmas, Jack, Tucker Carlson, Nate Silver, Ann Althouse, Emotional Politics

"In 2010, President Obama’s participation in a similar televised Q. & A. session with congressional Republicans was so well received by politicos and the press..."

"... that it inspired a short-lived bipartisan campaign, called 'Demand Question Time,' to bring the British tradition to the U.S. '[T]here was something riveting and moving about political opponents squaring off for an unfettered and unmoderated discussion of the challenges that face the nation,' *Mother Jones’*s David Corn wrote. 'Though nothing was resolved in terms of policy and legislation, this was a moment of optimism.' Tuesday’s lively Oval Office photo op—a sit-down between the Democrat...
Tags: Law, Obama, Barack Obama, Gop, Nancy Pelosi, Baltimore, Nancy, Trump, Democratic, Mike Pence, Mother Jones, Oval Office, Pelosi, Schumer, Grover Norquist, Chuck Schumer

"The Republican-controlled Wisconsin Senate has passed a sweeping measure taking power away from the incoming Democratic governor and attorney general, and reducing how long early voting can take place."

"The measure was approved on a 17-16 vote with all Democrats and one Republican voting against it. The Assembly was expected to give final approval later Wednesday morning and send the measure to Republican Gov. Scott Walker, who has signaled his support. The bill would limit the governor’s ability to put in place administrative rules that enact laws and give the Legislature the power to control appointees to the board that runs the state economic development agency until Sept. 1. The legislatio...
Tags: Law, Obama, Congress, California, Senate, White House, London Stock Exchange, Ap, Metaphor, Atlantic, Democrats, Gop, House, Language, Connecticut, Wisconsin

The election that won't end: 2 House seats in New York, 1 in California remain in question

More than two weeks after the Nov. 6 election, The Associated Press has yet to call a pair of House races – both in The Empire State – and FiveThirtyEight, the data analysis website founded by statistician-turned-journalist Nate Silver, is questioning the AP’s call in another House race.            [Author: USA TODAY]
Tags: Usa, New York, News, California, Ap, House, Associated Press, Usa Today, Nate Silver

The Correspondent launches campaign to bring its ad-free journalism to the US

De Correspondent, a Dutch news organization aiming to “unbreak the news,” is planning to launch in the United States next year as The Correspondent. To fund its efforts, it’s hoping to raise $2.5 million from future readers. Co-founder and CEO Ernst Pfauth (a former tech journalist who previously served as editor in chief at The Next Web) said this campaign is meant to test the waters of whether U.S. readers are interested in The Correspondent’s journalism. If it raises the money, it will launch...
Tags: Startups, Media, US, Tech, United States, Netherlands, Jimmy Wales, Shell, Judd Apatow, Om Malik, Nate Silver, Roseanne Cash, The Correspondent, Ernst Pfauth, Pfauth, FiveThirtyEight s Nate Silver Wikimedia

Too Close for Comfort

Here’s the bottom line out today from The Cook Report, which has been a bit less friendly to Democrats this cycle than Nate Silver’s forecasting. “We continue to believe anywhere from a 20 to 40 seat Democratic gain is possible, but right now the likeliest outcome is a Democratic gain of between 25 and 35 seats.” 40 would be a great result for Dems. So would 30. Even 25 would be good enough. But these numbers are way too close for comfort with what’s on the line in two weeks. [Author: Josh Mars...
Tags: News, Democratic, Josh Marshall, Nate Silver, Editor’s Blog

538's Nate Silver: 'It's hard to find a clear path for Democrats' to win Senate

Editor-in-Chief Nate Silver joins "This Week" with the latest FiveThirtyEight forecast for the Senate and House midterms, just over two weeks away.
Tags: News, Senate, House, Nate Silver

And Away We Go! Early Voting Clues Point To Very High Interest Election

It’s all happening. Completed early voting ballots are pouring into county clerk offices from Nevada to Illinois. Candidates are flooding the airwaves with last-minute calls for support. In Georgia, Cobb County residents have stood in snaking three-hour lines, waiting for the chance to cast their votes. It’s far too early to read the tea leaves from the early voting returns. Different states and localities have different early voting practices, and there are still 18 days to go before Nov. 6, ...
Tags: News, Supreme Court, Senate, White House, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Gop, House, Arizona, Wisconsin, University of Florida, Nevada, Dc, Illinois, Donald Trump, Pew Research Center

Democrats Dominate House Fundraising

Democrats have raised almost 2/3 of the total money for the House (not counting candidates who lost in primaries). Despite the fact that the GOP holds the incumbency advantage. Never been anything like that before in our House fundraising data, which goes back to 1998. — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 16, 2018 [Author: David Kurtz]
Tags: News, Gop, House, David Kurtz, Nate Silver, Livewire

Sate Your Polling Obsession

Would you like to join our conversation with Nate Silver next Wednesday? Any Prime member can join us. Click here for instructions. [Author: Josh Marshall]
Tags: News, Josh Marshall, Nate Silver, Editor’s Blog

Nate Silver creates anxiety and allays it.

Seems fair to say that Democrats' polling is underwhelming in states and districts with large numbers of Hispanic voters. At the same time, polling has sometimes lowballed Democrats' numbers in these areas.— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 19, 2018 [Author: [email protected] (Ann Althouse)]
Tags: Law, Polling, Nate Silver, Ann Althouse, 2018 Elections, the Hispanic vote

Pretty Clear GRU's Goal Was To Weaken a Future Clinton Presidency, Former Facebook CSO Says

Speaking at the TechCrunch Disrupt tech conference this week, former Facebook chief security officer Alex Stamos reflected on his time dealing with fake news and Russian intelligence interference ahead and after the 2016 US presidential election. From a report: The former Facebook security head said "it [was] pretty clear the GRU's goal was to weaken a future Hillary presidency. Putin has a [you know, it's been well-documented] like a personal antipathy towards her and believes that she was behi...
Tags: Facebook, Putin, US, Tech, Gru, Hillary, Techcrunch Disrupt, Clinton, Facebook CSO, Alex Stamos, Nate Silver, Trump Stamos

"By any metric, Trump is in trouble."

Writes Megan McArdle in "Poll by sinking poll, Trump inches toward impeachment" (WaPo). The headline suggests that low poll numbers is a high crime or misdemeanor.If polls determined who gets to be President, Hillary Clinton would be President. She had the clear lead in the polls. But under the Constitution, the presidency goes to the person who wins in the Electoral College, and there isn't another go-'round for that until 2020. So the only alternative is impeachment, which requires the House t...
Tags: Post, Law, Congress, Abc, Senate, Hillary Clinton, House, Wisconsin, Scott Walker, Hillary, Polls, Trump, Walker, WaPo, Electoral College, Nate Silver

networked social capital

When FiveThirtyEight published the details of 3 million trolls and bots that were link to the Russian-based company Internet Research Agency, they were merely providing data. Two researchers initially compiled the data. But by making the data public, FiveThirtyEight was able to engage a diverse group of widely varying expertise in order to make sense of it. It is only with knowledge that we can examine data and turn it into information. FiveThirtyEight realized that a small group of experts was ...
Tags: Innovation, Abc News, Wall Street Journal, eLearning, Internet Research Agency, Nate Silver, ConnectedEnterprise, PKMastery, Alex Barrera

Breaking down the advanced metric Gabe Kapler uses to evaluate his bullpen arms

The goose egg is a little-known relief statistic that was introduced in Apirl 2017 by Nate Silver, the statistician and writer who has a particular fondness for baseball and politics. Phillies manager Gabe Kapler has embraced it and even posted a leaderboard in the hallway that leads into the home clubhouse at Citizens Bank Park.
Tags: Phillies, Nate Silver, Gabe Kapler

Elon Musk has a very bad idea for a website rating journalists

Elon Musk has, as I imagine he often does during meetings or long car rides, come up with an idea for a new thing. Unlike the HyperLoop, which was cool, and various space-related ideas, which we know he’s at least partly expert about, this one is just plain bad. It’s basically Yelp But For Journalism. Going to create a site where the public can rate the core truth of any article & track the credibility score over time of each journalist, editor & publication. Thinking of calling it Pravda ...
Tags: Social, Facebook, Twitter, Elon Musk, Opinion, America, Tech, New York Times, Musk, Nate Silver

What you need to know in advertising today

Snapchat is trying to cement its position as the leading platform in augmented reality marketing. The company is adding a new "Shop Now" button that users can tap to install an app, watch a video or shop for products, all within the Snapchat app. The button is meant to close the sales loop for marketers looking to drive returns on their investment (ROI), and is available on an enhanced version of its lens product that Snapchat is calling the "Shoppable AR" lens. To read more about Snapchat's Sho...
Tags: Apple, Facebook, Disney, Trends, ROI, Eu, Snapchat, Philadelphia, Starbucks, Espn, Susan Wojcicki, Abc News, Wall Street Journal, Publicis, WPP, Omnicom

ABC News Takes Over Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight

ESPN will eighty-six FiveThirtyEight, the statistics-driven news-and-analysis site led by Nate Silver. But the news outlet will go back to square one at ABC News. In an unusual transfer of corporate assets, Walt Disney’s ABC News said it would acquire Silver’s much-scrutinized operation from sibling ESPN. Financial terms were not disclosed. More to come….
Tags: News, Abc, Espn, Abc News, Walt Disney, Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight, ABC News Takes Over Nate Silver

8 April Novels to Diversify Your Reading

I’ve often talked about the difficulty of defining what it means to diversify your reading. Some people look for books written by people of color, and others are searching for stories featuring non-Christian/Catholic or non-white characters. I consider books in translation as diverse reading because they expand my perspective beyond the English-speaking world. You may be looking for novels that include LBGTQ+ themes or focus on medical issues or another less common topic. The 8 books in this wee...
Tags: Books, Hollywood, Mexico, America, Los Angeles, Spain, Brooklyn, Portugal, Harry, Lgbtq, Las Vegas, States, Annie, North Carolina, Columbus, Random House

Heisler: Will we ever see the real Team LeBron vs. real Team Steph again?

Now to see if there’s one installment left in that Warriors-Cavaliers act you’ve known for all these years. The NBA’s roll continued with a competitive All-Star Game – or at least one with some defense, if that can be said of Team LeBron’s 148-145 victory over Team Stephen – with TV ratings that didn’t drop too much. Given the fact that all-star games compete in an increasingly bored climate, sending this event to cable, it qualified as a triumph, winning the night for TNT with a 2.8 rating. No....
Tags: Boston, Sports, Isaiah Thomas, Atlanta, Sport, Soccer, Gm, Nba, Miami, Rockets, Lebron James, Jackson, TNT, Cleveland, Stephen, Curry